## Principal Investigator – Mike Sinn

## Abstract

## Objective

## Participant Instructions

Record your Overall Mood daily in the reminder inbox or using the interactive web or mobile notifications.

## Design

## Data Analysis

Exercise measurement values below 0 seconds were assumed erroneous and removed. Exercise measurement values above 7 days were assumed erroneous and removed. It was assumed that any gaps in Exercise data were unrecorded 0 seconds measurement values.

Overall Mood Pre-Processing

Overall Mood measurement values below 1 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. Overall Mood measurement values above 5 out of 5 were assumed erroneous and removed. No missing data filling value was defined for Overall Mood so any gaps in data were just not analyzed instead of assuming zero values for those times.

Predictive Analytics

It was assumed that 0 hours would pass before a change in Exercise would produce an observable change in Overall Mood. It was assumed that Exercise could produce an observable change in Overall Mood for as much as 7 days after the stimulus event.

## Data Sources

Overall Mood data was primarily collected using QuantiModo. QuantiModo allows you to easily track mood, symptoms, or any outcome you want to optimize in a fraction of a second. You can also import your data from over 30 other apps and devices. QuantiModo then analyzes your data to identify which hidden factors are most likely to be influencing your mood or symptoms.

## Limitations

We can also take advantage of several characteristics of time series data from many subjects to infer the likelihood of a causal relationship if we do find a correlational relationship. The criteria for causation are a group of minimal conditions necessary to provide adequate evidence of a causal relationship between an incidence and a possible consequence.

The list of the criteria is as follows: **Strength (A.K.A. Effect Size)**

A small association does not mean that there is not a causal effect, though the larger the association, the more likely that it is causal. There is a moderately positive relationship between Exercise and Overall Mood

**Consistency (A.K.A. Reproducibility)**

Consistent findings observed by different persons in different places with different samples strengthens the likelihood of an effect. Furthermore, in accordance with the law of large numbers (LLN), the predictive power and accuracy of these results will continually grow over time. 368 paired data points were used in this analysis. Assuming that the relationship is merely coincidental, as the participant independently modifies their Exercise values, the observed strength of the relationship will decline until it is below the threshold of significance. To it another way, in the case that we do find a spurious correlation, suggesting that banana intake improves mood for instance, one will likely increase their banana intake. Due to the fact that this correlation is spurious, it is unlikely that you will see a continued and persistent corresponding increase in mood. So over time, the spurious correlation will naturally dissipate.

**Specificity**

Causation is likely if a very specific population at a specific site and disease with no other likely explanation. The more specific an association between a factor and an effect is, the bigger the probability of a causal relationship.

**Temporality**

The effect has to occur after the cause (and if there is an expected delay between the cause and expected effect, then the effect must occur after that delay). The confidence in a causal relationship is bolstered by the fact that time-precedence was taken into account in all calculations.

**Biological Gradient**

Greater exposure should generally lead to greater incidence of the effect. However, in some cases, the mere presence of the factor can trigger the effect. In other cases, an inverse proportion is observed: greater exposure leads to lower incidence.

**Plausibility**

A plausible bio-chemical mechanism between cause and effect is critical. This is where human brains excel. Based on our responses so far, 32 humans feel that there is a plausible mechanism of action and 5 feel that any relationship observed between Exercise and Overall Mood is coincidental.

**Coherence**

Coherence between epidemiological and laboratory findings increases the likelihood of an effect. It will be very enlightening to aggregate this data with the data from other participants

with similar genetic, diseasomic, environmentomic, and demographic profiles.

**Experiment**

All of human life can be considered a natural experiment. Occasionally, it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence.

**Analogy**

The effect of similar factors may be considered.

## Relationship Statistics

Property | Value |
---|---|

Cause Variable Name | Exercise |

Effect Variable Name | Overall Mood |

Sinn Predictive Coefficient | 0.012540092612063 |

Confidence Level | medium |

Confidence Interval | 0.26509740417056 |

Forward Pearson Correlation Coefficient | 0.37109968275393 |

Critical T Value | 1.733 |

Total Exercise Over Previous 7 days Before ABOVE Average Overall Mood | 19 minutes |

Total Exercise Over Previous 7 days Before BELOW Average Overall Mood | 17 minutes |

Duration of Action | 7 days |

Effect Size | moderately positive |

Number of Paired Measurements | 368 |

Optimal Pearson Product | -0.00046061526444267 |

P Value | 0.36 |

Statistical Significance | 0.46757499454543 |

Strength of Relationship | 0.26509740417056 |

Study Type | population |

Analysis Performed At | 2019-01-12 |

Number of Participants | 4 |

## Exercise Statistics

Property | Value |
---|---|

Variable Name | Exercise |

Aggregation Method | MEAN |

Analysis Performed At | 2019-01-12 |

Duration of Action | 7 days |

Kurtosis | 2.4622420993866 |

Maximum Allowed Value | 7 days |

Mean | 23 minutes |

Median | 24 minutes |

Minimum Allowed Value | 0 seconds |

Number of Correlations | 50 |

Number of Measurements | 247 |

Onset Delay | 0 seconds |

Standard Deviation | 13.434816311673 |

Unit | Minutes |

UPC | 641945618877 |

Variable ID | 93529 |

Variance | 436.1962285333 |

## Overall Mood Statistics

Property | Value |
---|---|

Variable Name | Overall Mood |

Aggregation Method | MEAN |

Analysis Performed At | 2019-01-13 |

Duration of Action | 24 hours |

Kurtosis | 3.7383708126619 |

Maximum Allowed Value | 5 out of 5 |

Mean | 3.1156748504321 out of 5 |

Median | 3.1369047348216 out of 5 |

Minimum Allowed Value | 1 out of 5 |

Number of Correlations | 1149 |

Number of Measurements | 605816 |

Onset Delay | 0 seconds |

Standard Deviation | 0.56833853113207 |

Unit | 1 to 5 Rating |

UPC | 767674073845 |

Variable ID | 1398 |

Variance | 0.43884384603152 |